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Anatomy of the Bear: Lessons from Wall Street's four great bottoms by Russell Napier

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At the bottom with the bear - Summer 1921

But there was Jordan beside me, who, unlike Daisy, was too wise ever to carry well-forgotten dreams from age to age.

F Scott Fitzgerald, The Great Gatsby

In major bear markets, equities are reduced to low valuations. However, as we shall see, this movement to extreme under-valuation is only partly due to this final down-draft in prices. A key element of the move to undervaluation is also a prolonged period of time, prior to the bear market itself, when the advance in stock prices has failed to keep pace with economic and earnings growth. As we shall see, the improvement in stock valuations, even prior to the bear market, has been a feature of all the bear market bottoms in the US with the exception ...

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