O'Reilly logo

Handbook of Game Theory by Shmuel Zamir, Petyon Young

Stay ahead with the world's most comprehensive technology and business learning platform.

With Safari, you learn the way you learn best. Get unlimited access to videos, live online training, learning paths, books, tutorials, and more.

Start Free Trial

No credit card required

Chapter 18

Calibration and Expert Testing

Wojciech Olszewski*    * Department of Economics, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL, USA

Abstract

I survey and discuss the recent literature on testing experts or probabilistic forecasts, which I would describe as a literature on “strategic hypothesis testing” The starting point of this literature is some surprising results of the following type: suppose that a criterion forjudging probabilistic forecasts (which I will call a test) has the property that if data are generated by a probabilistic model, then forecasts generated by that model pass the test. It, then, turns out an agent who knows only the test by which she is going to be judged, but knows nothing about the data-generating process, ...

With Safari, you learn the way you learn best. Get unlimited access to videos, live online training, learning paths, books, interactive tutorials, and more.

Start Free Trial

No credit card required